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LOC Conference Competition

The LOC (Local Organising Committee) of SASA2015 has decided to launch a small competition in the run-up to the SASA2015 conference.  This competition carries a prize of R 1 500 sponsored by Statomet and only registered delegates may enter.


Question:  What is the probability that you (the entrant) will win this competition?


You are requested to derive/describe P(win) in an innovative way, and you may make any assumptions you deem necessary for the calculation.  You can use any reference (textbook/internet/etc.) as long as you reference all sources.  Novel/interesting approaches are expected and complete and sufficient descriptions of your approach are required.


The competition closes on Tuesday 1 December before the first morning session, and submissions to be received by the registration table of the conference before the start of the morning session

The winner(s) will be announced at lunch on Tuesday 1 December.  Winners will be required to appear in person at this event